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Mathematics of War

The new rules of conflict

Research Papers

Below is a list of relevant papers that you can download.

Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency

Nature Ecology of war supplementary info

Book chapter underpinning the part of our model concerning the timing of events

Book chapter underpinning the part of our model concerning the size of events

Earlier research and predictions from 2006

Earlier research and predictions from 2005

Generalisations of the basic one population model giving alpha of 2.5

First order model to estimate the duration of an asymmetric conflict

Supplimentary information for conflict duration paper

Information flow and and the spread of rumors within an insurgency

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  • Download the Nature Paper

    You can download a copy of the Nature paper "Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency" here (subscription required). Or if you do not have access to a Nature login you can download a non-subscription .pdf version of the paper here
  • Quant Analyis of Conflict

    Below is a list of some of the prominent thinkers and academics in the Quant Conflict Analysis space
  • Links

    • Cederman Website of Prof. Lars-Erik Cederman at International Conflict Research
    • Dr. Brian Tivnan Principal Engineer, Modeling and Simulation Engineering at MITRE Corporation
    • Global Guerrillas Open Source Warfare comment and analysis from John Robb
    • Kristian Gleditsch Professor at the University of Essex and researcher at the Centre for the Study of Civil War, Oslo
    • Prof. Chris Danforth Academic from University of Vermont, models insurgency and terrorism
    • Prof. Peter Dodds Prof. at University of Vermont looking at the statistics of insurgency
    • Structure & Strangeness Website for physicist Aaron Clauset who is a researcher in the statistcs of terrorism
    • Weidmann Website of Nils Weidmann a postdoc conflict researcher at Princeton University

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