This website is a resource intended to accompany the “Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency” paper that was published in the Dec 17th issue of the journal Nature.

Below is a list of relevant papers that you can download.

The latest Nature paper

  1. Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency
  2. Nature Ecology of war supplementary info

Our research paper has generated significant interest across a range of disciplines. You can read more about this paper, it’s critiques, feedback and the conversation surrounding it under the Further Reading and Issues Arising section of the website.

Background reading about the underlying model

  1. Book chapter underpinning the part of our model concerning the timing of events
  2. Book chapter underpinning the part of our model concerning the size of events

Early draft versions of our research

  1. Earlier research and predictions from 2006
  2. Earlier research and predictions from 2005

In depth coverage of the population model

  1. Generalisations of the basic one population model giving alpha of 2.5

Potential applications of the model to policy/strategy

  1. First order model to estimate the duration of an asymmetric conflict
  2. Supplementary information for conflict duration paper
  3. Information flow and and the spread of rumors within an insurgency

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